JEF in the Media

By: Simon J. Evenett

Abstract: The fate of the world trading system in 2010 is likely to rest on how policymakers react to the "events" thrown up in the next twelve months, rather than outcomes of established official processes, such as the G-20 and at the WTO. Indeed, the impact of announced official processes are likely to be far less important than a number of potentially disruptive other developments, the magnitude of which cannot be known for sure at the beginning of the year even if their identity can. "Events" rather than "plans" will likely dominate in 2010. Given that each of these events could trigger restrictions on international commerce, it follows that some of the current optimism about "holding the line" against protectionism is misplaced.

Indeed, it would be wrong for trade ministers and their officials to overlook these potential events in their planning. Moreover, the realization that these contingencies exist should serve as a reminder that the world trading system is not yet out of the woods. That system still faces crisis-era threats - the proponents of an open world economy must continue to make their case, monitor the activities of governments, and encourage accommodation in the resolution of international commercial disputes.

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